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Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

One U.S. holder of Adani bonds looked to buy more this week but said his trade orders were not being executed because of lack of available paper. Another U.S. based emerging markets focused money manager who held Adani bonds said he was sitting tight on his position. Indian companies have not been prolific issuers of U.S. dollar bonds and Adani's bonds with secured assets were seen as providing direct, quality exposure to the fast-growing economy. Another source, a U.S. based hedge fund manager, said he was looking to short Adani's dollar bonds after the Hindenburg report but was finding it difficult to borrow bonds to sell. Bid-offer spreads, a measure of liquidity, widened significantly after the Hindenburg report, Tradeweb data showed.

Spreads indicate the premium investors demand to hold corporate bonds rather than safer government debt. However, some investors expect credit spreads may widen again to reflect a recession potentially ahead. Hedge funds and some asset managers short credit, meaning they are betting on a fall in a bond's price, by buying products like credit default swaps (CDS), which rise in value if the risk of a credit default event increases. Primary markets indicate there is no lack of demand for corporate bonds. They expect credit spreads to widen in the first half of this year.

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